Model-based Prognostic Techniques

Conventional maintenance strategies, such as corrective and preventive maintenance, are not adequate to fulfill the needs of expensive and high availability industrial systems. A new strategy based on forecasting of system degradation through a prognostic process is required. The recent advances in modelbased design technology have realized significant time savings in product development cycle. These advances facilitate the integration of model-based diagnosis and prognosis of systems, leading to condition-based maintenance and increased availability of systems. With an accurate simulation model of a system, diagnostics and prognostics can be synthesized concurrently with system design. In this paper, we will develop an integrated prognostic process based on data collected from model-based simulations under nominal and degraded conditions. Prognostic models are constructed based on different random load conditions (modes). Interacting Multiple Model (IMM) is used to track the hidden damage. Remaining life prediction is performed by mixing modebased life predictions via time-averaged mode probabilities. The solution has the potential to be applicable to a variety of systems, ranging from automobiles to aerospace systems.